Abraham Augustine, Author at TechCabal https://techcabal.com/author/abraham/ Leading Africa’s Tech Conversation Sun, 28 Jan 2024 18:11:28 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.1.1 https://techcabal.com/wp-content/uploads/tc/2018/10/cropped-tcbig-32x32.png Abraham Augustine, Author at TechCabal https://techcabal.com/author/abraham/ 32 32 Next Wave: Innovation theatre https://techcabal.com/2024/01/29/innovation-theatre/ https://techcabal.com/2024/01/29/innovation-theatre/#respond Mon, 29 Jan 2024 06:45:00 +0000 https://techcabal.com/?p=127270

First published 28 January, 2024

We reached the max tolerance for innovation theatre. What comes next?

Entrepreneurs, investors, an uncritical media, and government are guilty of what Steve Blank, the Stanford University professor of entrepreneurship, calls “innovation theatre”—a body of initiatives we do and promote to signal that innovation is happening, but which doesn’t translate to significant business value or economic impact.

Innovation theatre is pretty easy to spot, but in good times, most people are content to live and let live. When things take a bad turn, though, theatrics tend to disappear in a huff. It’s why people are losing faith in things like acceleratorships, and why more venture capital investors are struggling with an identity crisis and narrative collapse.

Innovation theatrics are not unique to Africa, and these days, it is common to call it out. What is replacing it, though, is a cynical defeatism that is no better, if not simply worse.

The chart below is popular in Nigerian tech circles. It is from a 2020 article by Jake Kendall, one of our friends at DFSLab, and it became popular in 2022 after Stears used the chart in an article and more recently in 2023. It’s a brilliant read and a good addition to resources for framing your thinking and approach to African markets as an investor or a founder.

But I have always been bewildered by the viral conversations that it sparked on social media. The key lesson for most seemed to be, “Africans are poor. Don’t waste your time”, and similar statements.

For me, the key takeaway of the chart (and the entire piece) is simply that we’ve reached a maximum tolerance level for efficiency and sustaining innovations that rode the mobile/smartphone boom in Africa.

Kendall’s article did a great job of sketching the broad contours for consumer business modelling. But if an entrepreneur building a consumer product looks at it and decides to go build something on a B2B model instead, it tells me two things: (1) Technology is only marginally relevant to what she was working on. (2) The type of innovation being proposed is simply an attempt to profit from naked arbitrage in supply chains by offering what the late Clay Christensen called, “efficiency innovation” or “sustaining” innovation.

This is not to say that one cannot build a good business on top of that economic model—it is possible. However, I believe it’s a mistake to let just that outline the definitive shape of your vision for consumer markets if you are a founder or an investor. Why? Because you may just be confusing the naturally limited market of innovation that improves a product, for the more intensive creation process of innovation that creates new markets. And I’ll be frank. “Market creating innovation” is a hard thing. That is why the examples are few and far between.


Innovation that creates markets

What was the purchasing power of Africans when mobile telephony first took off on the continent? I’m still looking for the answer, but if I were a betting man, I’d wager it was significantly lower than the figures from the 2011–2015 PovCal data upon which (most of) the earlier mentioned chart is based.

The arguments of today about low purchasing power are strangely similar to the arguments of then. In the 1990s Africa was a poor continent, and the time did not look right for mass-market telephony. The difference, though, was not just the new cellular technology operating over the GSM standard. There was also institutional reform in telecoms governance at the political level. And, most importantly, what made it all workable was the new type of distribution, pricing and services that met latent demand.

Kendall and the DFSLab team are quite right when they say that the fortune is probably at the middle of the pyramid where people earn between $4 to $8. Taking 2022 quarterly results from MTN Group, Africa’s largest telecommunications company, average revenue per user (ARPU) across its 17 African markets has a mean value of $3.5 in pure dollar terms, i.e. not adjusted for purchasing power parity. MTN and its peers certainly did not start their business targeting a mean ARPU of $3.5 across Africa. It was certainly much lower when the company started.

So, simply targeting the same ARPU to make your business economics work or investment thesis work in the long term appears to be flawed to me, regardless of whether it’s consumer or business-to-business. The major exception to this is if what you are creating and advocating for is an efficiency or a sustaining innovation. And if it is, we should be clear about it upfront.


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Every innovation that created or unlocked new markets has been epochal or at least a part of a mega-trend or supercycle. We seem to have forgotten this. Supercycles are, in the world of commodity trading, a decade(s)-long period of extraordinary prices where old price expectations are reset and new anchors weighed. For our purposes, a supercycle is the early buildup of long-term consumer trends and economic activity where the key metric is not current consumption patterns, but the sum of the direction of progress over time.


China Poverty Rate 1990-2024 | Via Macrotrends | Data: WorldBank

When cars were becoming a more accepted part of life in America in 1906, most people were not buying cars. Telephones shortened distances and made relationships (business and otherwise) easier to manage, but, in the 1990s, most Africans did not own telephones. And when the Chinese were migrating en masse to cities in search of work opportunities after the Deng reforms, most of them couldn’t afford microwave ovens, despite the fact that China was producing them for the export market by the 1990s—until Galanz switched from selling duck feathers to making cheaper versions for the domestic market. China’s poverty rate in 1990 was 99%.

Innovation, especially market-creating innovation, can still happen when the economic indicators are not in the best state. There just needs to be a clear macro groundswell that is being tapped. Product or service solutions that become successful in creating markets and value ecosystems become market-defining players as economic fortunes turn.

In Africa today, there’s probably a space for entrepreneurs and investors who will take time to tune out the noise and zero in on finding a new way of doing business a.k.a launching a solution that creates markets rather than seeking profit from the current market setup. It is, after all, how Africa “leapfrogged” telephone landlines.



Abraham Augustine,

Senior Reporter, TechCabal.

Thank you for reading this far. Feel free to email abraham[at]bigcabal.com, with your thoughts about this edition of NextWave. Or just click reply to share your thoughts and feedback.




Programming note: Joseph Olaoluwa in Lagos, and Kenn Abuya in Nairobi have been sharing fresh perspectives on the Next Wave newsletter since Q3 2023. They will now man the fort with my full support.



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]]> https://techcabal.com/2024/01/29/innovation-theatre/feed/ 0 Exclusive: Twiga, Incentro agree to renegotiate terms of contentious $261k debt https://techcabal.com/2024/01/23/twiga-incentro-debt/ https://techcabal.com/2024/01/23/twiga-incentro-debt/#respond Tue, 23 Jan 2024 13:17:45 +0000 https://techcabal.com/?p=126989 Incentro, the Google Cloud services reseller that sued Twiga Foods to collect more than $261,000 in unpaid invoices, has resolved its dispute with the e-commerce startup, TechCabal has learned. The bill ballooned to $450,000. In December 2023, a Kenyan court gave both companies until March 13, 2024, to resolve the debt dispute after an earlier November deadline was missed. 

A person close to the matter said both parties have now agreed to ask Google to cancel the original contract after Twiga’s new management team and Incentro Africa completed negotiations following the departure of Peter Njonjo, Twiga co-founder and CEO. 

Incentro has agreed to withdraw the lawsuit and renegotiate the original contract terms with Google “in light of the current global economic climate,” said Zuber Momoniat,  Twiga’s CFO. 

Dennis de Weerd, Incentro’s CEO, confirmed that Momoniat was “instrumental in resolving the dispute and rekindling our partnership.” 

Inside Twiga and Incentro’s debt dispute 

While Incentro has not yet withdrawn the lawsuit, it has sent a letter committing to doing so once the negotiation with Google is settled.

Twiga’s contract with Incentro was a complex 4-party transaction that involved Google Cloud, Digicloud, a Google distributor, Incentro, the local Kenyan cloud service reseller and Twiga Foods.

Incentro agreed to provide cloud services worth $3 million to Twiga Food for three years beginning in mid-2022. In return for a long-term commitment, Google would offer Twiga Foods incentives and perks worth $200,000 through Incentro. To deliver this, Incentro signed a similar agreement with Digicloud, Google’s distributor, for $3 million worth of Google Cloud services over three years. 

African companies that use Google Cloud sometimes opt for long-term contracts involving a reseller who manages their cloud account with Google to avoid direct billing on a credit or debit card. The reseller is responsible for delivering extra perks and incentives on behalf of Google Cloud.

According to Incentro’s September 2023 court filing, Twiga fell behind on monthly payments as the e-commerce firm adjusted its priorities from growth to profitability. 

Twiga and Incentro are now asking Google through Digicloud to redo the contract terms. De Weerd said this was what his company had been trying to get Twiga to agree to before the lawsuit.

African companies are still “small” customers 

Africa only has a handful of big spenders, and cloud providers prioritise these few big spenders with $100 million in annual revenue, an Amazon Web Services employee told TechCabal. Startups are a distant second. 

However, African startup executives whose companies rely on global providers are struggling with the increasing amounts they have to shell out for cloud services. In many cases, weakening local currencies are responsible for the increases even when cloud providers keep their prices unchanged. 

“I will take having to pay local cloud cost with the same level of security with +92% uptime over 99.9% uptime and rising dollar cost that could ultimately wreck my business,” Edmund Olotu, CEO and founder of Bloc, a business banking fintech, said on X.

Twiga’s case underscores a familiar problem facing African companies who try to save costs by entering long-term contracts with global cloud or SaaS providers. Global service providers are often inflexible if these companies run into difficulty and need custom support, a Kenyan cloud expert told TechCabal. 

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Next Wave: Trading second-hand shares in African startups does not make money anymore. That’s good? https://techcabal.com/2024/01/22/market-for-second-hand-shares-afric/ https://techcabal.com/2024/01/22/market-for-second-hand-shares-afric/#respond Mon, 22 Jan 2024 05:11:00 +0000 https://techcabal.com/?p=126888

First published 21 January, 2024

Secondary selling—also known as secondhand trading—exists everywhere. The markets of Lagos, Kinshasa and De Villiers Street in Johannesburg are full of traders and buyers haggling over bales of “pre-loved” clothing. A significant number of iPhones and laptops sold in Africa are “London-used”. Even luxury brands are not spared: Richemont, LVMH and Rolex all walk the fine line between maintaining demand via waitlisting and pushing desperate luxury shoppers to the grey secondary markets for pre-owned watches and other luxury items. Secondaries happen everywhere.

One can argue that this secondary market is the real market. Trading shares of publicly listed companies on a stock exchange, for example, is simply a series of parallel secondary transactions at scale. When people talk about the financial market, this is the market they are usually referring to. It is the same for the parts of the bond market, commodities, and (maybe) even the market for financial derivatives built on top of secondary trades.

TechCabal’s Muktar Oladunmade and I have written about how secondary transactions in Africa’s technology space made founders, startup employees and early-stage investors rich. We also pointed out that the heyday of secondary transactions seems over as people struggle to shed shares in private venture-backed technology startups in Africa. Sure founding teams and angel investors may have abused secondary transactions by selling dressed-up burnt potatoes to newer investors and cashing out. But unless almost every primary investment made in the four years between 2018 and 2022 is a smouldering wreckage about to explode in flames, the secondary market in Africa shouldn’t be frozen.

It also should not be about making easy wealth à la 2021 and 2022. Instead, it should be playing a role in creating a market-clearing (for want of a better word) valuation for African startups now that the peculiarities of the market are better known. We’ve spoken about local tech IPOs, but it will remain a pipe dream if the private market for secondary transactions continues to jealously guard valuations that are improbable.

In the world of venture capital, secondary market transactions happen because investors are desperate to buy stakes in “hot” companies, or want to consolidate their gains in what they feel is a portfolio winner. Or maybe they just want to keep founders and key employees happy by allowing them to taste some of the paper wealth they’ve accumulated. It’s a much different world today. There are fewer “hot” startups to chase after, regardless of how much marketing and PR arsenal is deployed. Valuations are too steep for anyone remotely interested, and layoffs are all too common.


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But in many ways, a tighter secondary market is a beast of its own making. Like any market, selling “second-hand” shares in a company will be difficult if there are no buyers or sellers, or when buyers and sellers cannot agree on a price. Since venture funding is at a 3-year low in Africa, I suspect it’s a mixture of no or few buyers, creating a wide gap between the price buyers offer and what sellers want. This standoff is unnecessary because it is prolonging a much-needed rebalancing in the world of African venture. And it is disreputable to pretend as if this rebalancing is not already happening.

While it is undoubtedly deserved in most cases, it is not a stretch to think that some good companies will be destroyed in this unforgiving market correction. A lot of that value destruction will happen because existing investors are too timid or blinded by fear to stand by their convictions. But some of it will happen because VCs are already writing down the value of companies in their portfolio to zero mentally. Writing down a company to zero mentally means the investor lacks the mental or operational bandwidth (not necessarily funds) to support a portfolio company.

When an investor mentally writes down huge swathes of their portfolio, the investor (and the investee) automatically become deadweight to each other. It is either the investor made colossal mistakes with the ventures they backed. Or they are making one with that unconscious decision to give up on the hidden gems within the company. An active secondary market was the exciting place where riches were to be made. Now it will have to be the painful and useful place where portfolios are rebalanced and expectations are reset. Tweeting and WhatsApping about it will not change anything.

Now that the quick flip method of going to the secondary market to extract high prices for poor investee companies is not working, startup investors (who still have cash to deploy) may fare better if they approach the deadlocked secondary market as an opportunity to scour the market and rethink what they are best placed to support and what exits in that sector should mean.


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Instead of hoping for secondary transactions that will “reward” early investors and founding teams. Investors may find that is better to take advantage of current deep discounts to rebalance portfolios that were damaged by the atmospheric losses as hype melted in the face of reality. The goodnews is that most local venture funds are still early and not all are fully deployed. The bad news is that fully deployed or not, there are no easy outs, and it is clear that exits will have to be engineered to some degree.

The point is not that investors with cash should go out there and buy just any distressed company. But it is likely that more than a few good companies will be left in the cold as the 2021 Titanic fully goes under. And any investor who is bored about getting the same old fintech pitch decks with no prospects may find that is more exciting to look at (some of) the firms their peers have mentally written down to zero.



Abraham Augustine,

Senior Reporter, TechCabal.

Feel free to email abraham[at]bigcabal.com, with your thoughts about this edition of NextWave. Or just click reply to share your thoughts and feedback.



We’d love to hear from you

Psst! Down here!

Thanks for reading today’s Next Wave. Please share. Or subscribe if someone shared it to you here for free to get fresh perspectives on the progress of digital innovation in Africa every Sunday.

As always feel free to email a reply or response to this essay. I enjoy reading those emails a lot.

TC Daily newsletter is out daily (Mon – Fri) brief of all the technology and business stories you need to know. Get it in your inbox each weekday at 7 AM (WAT).

Follow TechCabal on Twitter, Instagram, Facebook, and LinkedIn to stay engaged in our real-time conversations on tech and innovation in Africa.

]]> https://techcabal.com/2024/01/22/market-for-second-hand-shares-afric/feed/ 0 Exclusive: How Timbuktoo, the UNDP-backed $1bn innovation fund will work https://techcabal.com/2024/01/18/timbuktoo-africa-innovation-funddetails/ https://techcabal.com/2024/01/18/timbuktoo-africa-innovation-funddetails/#respond Thu, 18 Jan 2024 15:34:00 +0000 https://techcabal.com/?p=126754 On Tuesday, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), Rwanda, and seven other African countries announced the launch of Timbuktoo, an initiative that hopes to invest $1 billion over 10 years into 1000 tech startups across Africa. 

Touted the largest ever startup fund in Africa, Timbuktoo Africa Innovation Fund will commit $350 million of risk-tolerant capital to help attract an additional $650 million from private investors, Eleni Gabre-Madhin, Chief Innovation Officer at UNDP Africa told TechCabal via email. “What we’re trying to do is make it more attractive for domestic capital to come in at earlier stages… venture capital in Africa needs to be riskier,” Gabre-Madhin said at the launch event in Davos.

Timbuktoo will provide financing for accelerators and venture builders from the $350 million, including investments of up to $800 million in venture firms in 8 African countries alongside private partners. These details have not been previously reported.

The funds will “make pre-seed, seed, and pre-Series A investments on an equity basis to startups,” Gabre-Madhin said. In Casablanca, Morocco, funds from Timbuktoo will target tourism and hospitality startups, in Dakar, Senegal it will target edtech. In Lagos, Nigeria, Timbuktoo and its commercial fund partners will focus on fintech startups, while in Accra, Ghana it will focus on agritech. In South Africa, Capetown’s hub will target creatives, with Greentech being the focus in Nairobi, Kenya. The Rwandan hub in Kigali will focus on health tech. Trade, logistics and e-commerce will be the fund’s focus in Cairo, Egypt. The fund will work with local universities to support tech ventures.

Foreign development banks are major contributors to the venture capital African startups have received. Institutions from the International Finance Corporation and the European Investment Bank have backed first-time fund managers in Africa like Ventures Platforms, and Atlantica Ventures. Managers of Boost Africa, a venture capital facility run by the European Investment Bank are currently in the final stages of talks with the European Union over a new €159 million facility, Déborah Vouche, a private equity investment officer at the bank told TechCabal.

Kigali’s rising fortunes as a financial centre

The fund will be managed from Rwanda, a boon to Kigali’s financial centre Ambitions. Established in 2020, Kigali International Financial Centre is the #3 financial centre in Africa, only behind Casablanca in Morocco and Mauritius according to the latest ranking from the Global Financial Centres Index. At the launch event on Tuesday in Davos, Rwanda’s president, Paul Kagame made the first public commitment of $3 million to the fund. 

“The decision to domicile the Timbuktoo Africa Innovation Fund within KIFC reaffirms our attractiveness as an international financial services hub,” Jean Marie Kananura, Chief Investment Officer, Rwanda Finance Limited, the parent company of the Kigali International Centre told TechCabal.

Leading fintech firms like Flutterwave, Chippercash and Onafriq have opened offices in the country and say they plan to make Kigali their payments hub for East Africa.

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Nigerian regulators have declared open season on business. It’s already causing chaos https://techcabal.com/2024/01/15/nigeria-regulators-signal-tougher-stance/ https://techcabal.com/2024/01/15/nigeria-regulators-signal-tougher-stance/#respond Mon, 15 Jan 2024 15:46:17 +0000 https://techcabal.com/?p=126468 It’s regulatory season in Nigeria. Early in December, the central bank governor, Yemi Cardoso, fired a warning shot during a speech at a bankers’ dinner in Lagos.

“Recent developments in the payment services landscape have raised concerns regarding the use of technology and the existing licensing and regulatory framework,” Cardoso warned at the bankers’ dinner. “Any intentional or unintended non-compliance will be subject to sanctions, as operators have the responsibility to ensure that they are licensed for the activities they undertake.”

Cardoso added that the apex bank planned to review Nigeria’s existing licensing framework for payment services. 

Days after that warning, the central bank mandated all financial institutions to collect ID cards before creating financial accounts. Under a 2013 central bank rule designed to support financial inclusion, Nigerians without identity cards could open lite-versions of bank accounts or digital wallets, which could only receive N50,000 ($63) at once and have a maximum balance of N300,000 ($380). The second salvo was the Nigerian Inter-Bank Settlement System (NIBSS) taking a shot at fintechs that were not licenced to collect deposits but were nevertheless listed as deposit institutions on mobile money transfer apps. Central banks and commercial banks in Nigeria jointly own NIBSS.

The results of the two announcements have been mixed. The CBN’s announcement that it will mandate all account holders to submit identification was widely supported by financial institutions. The move is expected to help stem rising fraud in the sector. But even that is doubtful as a significant proportion of cyber fraud cases involve users who had identity cards that passed the smell test. 

“Most of the fraud that we see is the virtual account space, which is more difficult to tackle,” Esigie Aguele, co-founder and CEO of VerifyMe Nigeria, told TechCabal. “The government could be doing more to institutionalise fraud reporting instead of leaving it to just one agency,” he added.

The second regulatory action from NIBBS had mixed reactions. For one, the memo fell short of specifying what companies had broken the rules and were collecting deposits when they shouldn’t have. This left ample room for misinformation to spread on social media. It forced leading fintechs to reassure their customers via email and social media.

“It’s been a chaotic day with customers panicking,” a communications director at a leading fintech told TechCabal. “I wish regulators understand that these things affect human lives.” 

The announcement was well-received by financial sector professionals who feel an overhaul of the fintech space is overdue. “Read the 4th paragraph in Governor speech at CIBN conference… fintech doing more than what they are licensed to do,” one bank executive who leads the digital solutions unit of his bank told TechCabal. Nigerian banks both offer services that fintechs depend on, as well as operate directly competing digital products. NIBSS is also co-owned by Nigerian banks and the central bank. 

Then, two days before Christmas, the central bank announced that it was removing a two-year restriction that blocked banks from processing crypto-related transactions. The announcement seemed to open the door for a regulated crypto industry in Nigeria, and startups like Yellowcard, a pan-African crypto exchange, promised to “immediately” apply to be licenced under the new regulatory regime.

However, hopes for looser crypto policies were moderated early in the new year as the central bank clarified that it was not yet comfortable with the crypto industry. On January 2, 2024, the bank released guidelines that retained a ban on banks holding or trading in virtual assets and limited cryptocurrency accounts to only deposits made in local currency, with withdrawals limited to two every quarter.

The case of the commercial banks whose boards and management got the axe has been brewing since December after a report by a special investigator claimed the banks were fraudulently acquired. The central bank said Keystone Bank, Polaris Bank, and Union Bank committed infractions ranging from “regulatory non-compliance to corporate governance failure.” 

“CBN [is] signalling that compliance is going to be a big deal going forward,” Tola Onayemi, CEO of Norebase, a compliance-tech startup, said on X, formerly Twitter.

Regulation across board

Financial regulators are not the only ones asserting themselves. Nigeria’s Corporate Affairs Commission (CAC), responsible for registering businesses, planned to enforce a rule forcing private companies with foreign shareholders to have a minimum of N100 million (roughly $126,600) as paid-up capital. Paid-in capital is the amount the owners of a company have paid in exchange for shares in the company 

Before now, Nigerian companies with foreign shareholding only needed to put up N10 million (about $12,660) as paid-up capital. Part of the fees the CAC charges for company registration depends on the amount of paid-in-capital the company has received, a private wealth management lawyer told TechCabal. By increasing the minimum 10-fold, the CAC will increase its revenue from registering new companies. 

The CAC notice refers to a 2022 rule, the Revised Handbook on Expatriate Quota, which was issued by Nigeria’s Interior Ministry. At face value, the rule only applies to companies that need a business permit and a Combined Expatriate Residence Permit and Aliens Card (CERPAC) to operate in Nigeria. But this broader application of the rule by the CAC means that even Nigerian founders who do not need a business permit or a residence permit (because they are Nigerian) will be forced to increase the paid-up capital to regain compliance. 

In a private group chat for tech founders and investors, seen by TechCabal, one entrepreneur wondered why the CAC appealed to a rule from another agency instead of the Company and Allied Matters Act (CAMA), a revised version of which was passed in 2022 to regulate corporate registrations in Nigeria. The CAMA is the same law that establishes the Corporate Affairs Commission. 

The commission reversed course less than 48 hours later. In a statement published on December 22, 2023, it asked the public to disregard the notice given two days prior. “Our initial notice was based on the Federal Ministry of Interior Handbook on Expatriate Quota Administration 2022 Revised Edition. We shall issue an amended notice with regards to the above in due course,” the later statement said. The reaction on social media was furious. 

“There are things that make business so inhospitable in Nigeria, yet we just find a way to move on.  The fact that CAC could issue two conflicting statements within 48 hours, with no advance warning was triggering,” Subomi Plumptre, an executive at Volition Cap, a Lagos-based asset management firm, wrote on X, formerly Twitter.

At any rate, the message of the last 30 days is clear. Africa’s biggest recipient of venture capital funding has entered regulatory waters.

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Next Wave: Local tech IPOs are not the answer… yet https://techcabal.com/2024/01/15/ipos-are-not-the-answe/ https://techcabal.com/2024/01/15/ipos-are-not-the-answe/#respond Mon, 15 Jan 2024 10:57:54 +0000 https://techcabal.com/?p=126419

First published 14 January, 2024

African stock exchanges, big or small, have the opportunity to build a robust equity capital market ecosystem. That should take priority over asking tech giants to IPO locally.

Last week’s Next Wave asked whether Nigerian tech startups should consider listing on the stock exchange if a planned tech board within the country’s stock exchange goes live. TechCabal’s Ganiu Oloruntade followed that essay up with an exclusive where the CEO of the Nigerian stock exchange disclosed that the exchange is in talks with startups who he hopes will go ahead to list on the tech board this year. I think that’s incredibly optimistic, which is not a bad thing, but other than a listing from an older tech group like Interswitch whose London IPO plans have been pushed back repeatedly for several years, I struggle to see who else could conceivably want to go public in Nigeria.

I also struggle to see the same enthusiasm for local listings by startups anywhere else on the continent. Several of the most well-funded and more mature companies in any of the big four recipients of venture capital in Africa are only just recovering from the hangover of last year’s brutal operating environment. A few may unfortunately not survive it. And the more mature companies in smaller markets, like Wave whose key markets are Senegal and Cote d’Ivoire, are simply too big1 , for the regional Bourse Régionale des Valeurs Mobilières (BRVM). That leaves the younger early-stage startups that have barely begun to generate revenue as improbable candidates.

Think about it for a moment. What African tech startup would you be excited to buy shares in if it decides to list publicly on any African stock exchange this year?

The way I see it, focusing on getting the current crop of startups to list in any of the continent’s stock exchanges is a strategic misstep. It is not necessarily bad, but it is a step too early for a continent where an ungodly bulk of the capital financing that helps these startups get started is still foreign and flighty. Lightening public listing rules by creating a junior public market (like Nigeria’s tech board) for startups can be a mixed bag in terms especially if the goal is to simply get them to list, according to this 2019 paper in the Journal of Innovation Economics and Management.

Africa’s software companies of today are still pretty much strangers to the institutional capital establishment on the continent. A campaign to get startups to list might help stock exchanges get additional revenue, but it will do precious little to close the gap between local institutional finance and software ventures in Africa. Instead of focusing on creating a pipeline of tech company IPOs by simply creating a tech board, stock exchanges could achieve the same goals by working to connect local institutional capital with startups by building a more robust equity capital market ecosystem.



An alternative approach

Equity capital markets is a catch-all term for the financial space where companies raise capital from share sales privately and publicly. For the purpose of this conversation, let us imagine a new hybrid equity capital market that includes debt capital.

In this imaginary scenario, stock exchanges that wish to see more software companies listed on their trading boards will play an active role in helping coordinate the broader market for capital raising. Specifically, they will help companies and institutional investors build a robust private placement market where companies can raise capital by directly selling to local accredited investors, with the exchange as a mediator and due diligence partner.


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To put this another way, I believe that the road to publicly listed tech companies will be built on top of a robust private placement market that affords institutional fund managers in key African economies the opportunity to own part of nationally (or even globally) relevant software companies that are created in Africa. This is an arena where tech policymakers in the big economies which attract the most venture capital can focus on gaining even more strategic advantage. I hope someone from CORBEH, the digital sandbox of the EGX is reading this. It’s a no-brainer. And if they are too slow, it is also a sound strategy for tech-hub wannabe countries who have small economies but lofty financial centre dreams. Hello Rwanda, Mauritius, Namibia?

The paper I mentioned earlier demonstrates that a compromise can be worked out where junior stock exchange boards are constructed on top of a busy private placement environment.


Nothing can replace the trust of local institutional capital

When Egypt’s Fawry offered retail investors 5% of shares in 2019, it got oversubscribed, i.e. it received 30 times more applications for shares than it had offered. When Kenya’s government sold part of its stake in Safaricom on the Nairobi Stock Exchange in 2008, the 896,213 new brokerage accounts opened by retail investors more than doubled the number of individual investors registered at the stock exchange up to that point. The retail offering of the IPO was oversubscribed by 4.64 times. When MTN Nigeria offered some 3.2% of its shares in 2021, it hoped to attract 2 million retail investors. But only 126,720 retail investors were enough to buy up the 575 million shares on offer which were oversubscribed by 1.39 times.

Two things are common with these three IPO examples. The first is that these companies were definitive listings in their respective markets when they happened. Fawry’s IPO helped the Egyptian Stock Exchange break a dry spell, Safaricom’s IPO was hotly anticipated on the back of its growing subscriber base and the wildly successful M-Pesa product, and MTN’s primary share offering in Nigeria in 2021 rode the wave of a successful public campaign to get everyday Nigerians excited about owning a portion of the country’s largest telecoms firm.

The second feature all three IPOs share is the trust of local institutional investors and financial bodies. While retail investors where ethusiastic about the IPOs mentioned, institutional investors were the anchors of those floats. Retail investors in all of the examples given took up a larger chunk of the available shares.

One nice PR message is saying something like, “We want to democratise share ownership,” when a company pitches its shares during an IPO or any type of fundraising for that matter. But the reality is that companies do not really like it when the greater part of their shares are owned by a disembodied mass of retail investors. This is why the fund management business is one of the biggest businesses in the world today. It is why the likes of Blackrock and Vanguard exist. Capital markets function a bit better and are more stable when shareholding has a balanced mix of shareholding groups that buy in bulk and smaller investors that trade smaller chunks. And institutional fund managers like pension funds, hedge funds and mutual funds help to organise retail investors in this way.

As it stands today, Africa’s institutional fund managers live in a completely different world from startups. They are yet to understand the beast that is software-mostly companies, and they will not magically understand the software class of companies simply because a stock exchange makes it easy for tech startups to list publicly. Twitter conversations and LinkedIn comments of a few respected public market analysts I follow show the stark disconnect between how these two groups think.

There are a lot of reasons why tech startups and their venture investor backers do not build or invest in companies with a plan to exit via a local IPO event, but any resolution that does not involve helping local institutional funds and startups to learn and speak each other’s language will struggle. And the middle of an IPO is not the place to start.


While I’ll admit that the composition of people I follow on social media is a poor statistical sample, I would love to see an exchange that can help these groups find synergies in private sales deals. The way I see it, that is the best way to position the exchange you lead for an eventual public listing when the conditions are right. If you’re a startup founder reading this or a senior executive, is there any stock exchange in Africa that offers this type of high-touch concierge service today?

It would be nice to be able to chronicle the comings and goings of everyone’s startup favourites when they are listed. But I strongly doubt we will have this luxury in the near future if the wide space between local institutional capital and tech ventures is not bridged in private capital transactions. That should be the priority.


<1. Although the Bourse Régionale des Valeurs Mobilières (BRVM) has a market capitalisation of $12.86 billion, it has a yearly turnover that is less than and the larget IPO on the BRVM was the 2023 government sale of roughly 10% of its stake in Orange Telecom which raised $233 million. Privately sponsored listing have been less lucrative.↩


Abraham Augustine,

Senior Reporter, TechCabal.

Feel free to email abraham[at]bigcabal.com, with your thoughts about this edition of NextWave. Or just click reply to share your thoughts and feedback.



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]]> https://techcabal.com/2024/01/15/ipos-are-not-the-answe/feed/ 0 Exclusive: Wasoko and MaxAB to cut overlapping workforce as merger talks advance https://techcabal.com/2024/01/08/wasoko-and-maxab-to-cut-workforce-merger-talks-advance/ https://techcabal.com/2024/01/08/wasoko-and-maxab-to-cut-workforce-merger-talks-advance/#respond Mon, 08 Jan 2024 15:33:21 +0000 https://techcabal.com/?p=126113 Wasoko, the Tiger Global-backed Kenyan e-commerce startup and MaxAB, its Egyptian counterpart, will trim roughly 10% of the combined workforce of both companies, TechCabal has learned.

Both firms are in the early stages of integrating their operations ahead of the completion of a merger, which was announced in December 2023. Both companies employ around 4,000 people in Egypt and East Africa.

Employees were told about the cuts on a Google Meet call with no recording allowed, said one person at the meeting. “The Egyptian team from MaxAB is taking over the product and engineering teams,” the same person said.

Daniel Yu, Wasoko’s CEO, confirmed that affected employees have been notified and offered severance packages “in line with local laws.” Yu and Belal El Merghabel, MaxAB’s CEO, will remain leaders in the new entity.

Wasoko and MaxAB will also allow affected employees to keep their stock options after leaving the company. Employee stock options, which allow employees to own equity shares in their employer company over a certain period, are a common incentive startups use to attract and retain top talent.

Yu said part of the severance package it is offering affected employees will allow them to keep their stock options. Employee stock options are commonly forfeited when employees are fired for cause. When employees terminate for other reasons, companies usually buy back shares.

Over the lifetime of Wasoko, which has raised $143.6 million per Crunchbase data, has allowed employees with vested shares to sell stock three times.

In December, Wasoko and MaxAB announced they were in preliminary negotiations to form a single company in a “merger of equals.” According to an early MaxAB investor, a merger would create a unicorn with a combined gross merchandise value of roughly $50 million. The CEOs of MaxAB and Wasoko declined to comment on the expected valuation of the new firm.

Venture capital investors have poured money into entrepreneurs building tech companies that focused on bringing Africa’s informal wholesale market for consumer goods online.

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We’d like to hear from you. With a nonwork phone or computer, contact the author of this article at abraham@bigcabal.com. TechCabal protects the confidentiality of its sources.

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Twiga Foods CEO resigns from company’s board one month after announcing a half-year sabbatical https://techcabal.com/2024/01/05/twiga-ceo-resigns-from-board/ https://techcabal.com/2024/01/05/twiga-ceo-resigns-from-board/#respond Fri, 05 Jan 2024 07:01:15 +0000 https://techcabal.com/?p=125996 Peter Njonjo, the CEO and co-founder of Twiga, has resigned from the company board, arguing that he can only add “very little value” to the company in the future, seemingly confirming earlier reports that he was forced out as CEO last year.

Njonjo founded Twiga in 2013 and led the company until December 2023, when he abruptly announced that he would take a six-month sabbatical. 

At the time, TechCabal reported that the timing suggested Njonjo was likely being pushed out by Creadev and Juven. Both investors participated in a $35 million funding round that helped cash-strapped Twiga pay its obligations to vendors it owed.

“Currently, the strategic direction and daily operations are now firmly in the hands of Juven and Creadev, and there is very little value I can add from this point on,” Njonjo’s letter to his firm’s board, dated January 4, 2024, said. Njonjo said he had agreed to work through a six-month transition at the board’s request after his initial “resignation” to allow the board to recruit a new CEO. 

By describing his sabbatical as a resignation, Njonjo’s latest letter seems to confirm TechCabal’s earlier reporting that investors and long-time players in Kenya’s technology ecosystem privately speculated that his sabbatical was a cover for his eventual exit.

Peter Njonjo has not replied to TechCabal’s request for comments enquiries at the time of this report.

Njonjo closed a $35 million convertible bond to help Twiga repay vendors it owed two weeks before announcing his 6-month sabbatical in December 2023.

Njonjo told Business Daily, the Kenyan publication that published excerpts of Njonjo’s resignation letter, that he had contributed $1 million in that round led by Juven and Creadev. The additional funds were supposed to be used to pay vendors and suppliers Twiga owes. At least one supplier Twiga is locked in litigation with says they have not been paid or notified of a payment plan (despite Twiga saying it notified around 100 vendors). The company is now in informal talks with Twiga representatives, TechCabal learned.

Njonjo says he will be a supportive shareholder after his exit from the board and is already considering other opportunities that will take up his time. 

Njonjo is not the only Twiga leader who has departed the struggling company. According to his LinkedIn profile, Yebeltal Getachew, a former managing director for the Nigerian office of Coca-Cola who was hired in 2021 as the head of Twiga’s East Africa business, also left the company in December. Getachew was hired when the company prepared to pursue an aggressive expansion strategy.

Juven did not reply to enquiries sent to them by the time of this report. Messages sent to Creadev’s Africa managing director have not been replied to at the time of this filing.

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A Next Wave of 2023’s Next Waves https://techcabal.com/2023/12/25/next-wave-wrapped-2023/ https://techcabal.com/2023/12/25/next-wave-wrapped-2023/#respond Mon, 25 Dec 2023 18:00:00 +0000 https://techcabal.com/?p=125776

First published 24 December, 2023

In no order, here are 5 top picks from the 51 Next Wave editions we published this year.

Hey friend!

Thank you for sticking with the Next Wave team throughout the perma-crisis of this year. We published 51 Next Wave editions this year. In the second half of the year Joseph Olaoluwa and Kenn Abuya, both senior reporters at TechCabal, joined me to write these Sunday letters, and we crossed the 50,000 subscribers mark.

Some of you wrote to tell us what you liked about particular Next Wave editions. Some wrote almost full-length replies with suggestions, questions, and additional insight. We enjoyed reading your thoughts. Knowing you read this newsletter makes it worthwhile!

2023 has been a year of maturing for everyone who is part of the progress of Africa’s technology and venture capital industry. And there has been no lack of schadenfreude or “I told you so”. To wrap up this year, we’re bringing back five Next Wave editions that are neither a complaint nor an I told you so.

Happy re-reading! 🤗



One of our long reads this year was this piece about how supermarkets and small malls are springing up across parts of Africa and leading in the formalisation of the retail business on the continent. I wrote: “Small-scale modern retail in Africa will not completely replace open markets in Lagos, souks in Cairo, or storied markets like Karatina in central Kenya. But a subtle shift that can become a major marker of African retail is underway.”

Africa’s Coming Retail Revolution was written in the middle of September. Two months later in November, the Economist published Africa’s Supermarket Revolution. It felt good to be ahead


Early in the year, our friends at DFS Lab contributed this gem on why digitising Africa’s vast retail sector is tougher than most people expect. As we’ve seen from news coverage on the subject, this essay has borne itself out.

“Once you factor in acquisition and distribution costs, these models break and are forced back to serving those living on $10/day or more, which are only 5% of the continent’s population,” Chernay Johnson former director of research, DFS Lab, wrote. “Unless you’re able to fundamentally innovate around your cost structure, B2C marketplace models selling food and necessities potentially break under this logic.”



Entrepreneuring in Africa will take a toll on the health of the people brave enough to attempt it. Physical health problems are bad enough, but the unseen mental scrimmage that early-stage entrepreneurs face daily can be more paralysing.

In a year where well-funded companies have fallen apart due to mismanagement, outright fraud, an inability to raise funding, or even leadership fights, Joseph Olaoluwa reminded us that tech bros and sisters are human beings too.


In the last eight years, African startups have received at least $15 billion in venture capital investments. Briter Intelligence data puts this figure at $20 billion since 2013. When risk money is invested we are supposed to learn what works, what doesn’t work and how to create outsize returns in a market system. Outsize returns do not only have to be capital gains, although that is desirable and the primary motivation in many cases. But the best metric to measure outsize returns is the social impact of a venture, in a market system.

Twenty years ago, we saw the mobile revolution take off and create a sea change by facilitating communications. As we approach the first decade of institutional venture capital in Africa, we need to find the boldness to share data, knowledge and lessons.


In 2021, Wave, a fintech founded in Senegal became the first $1 billion+ company in Senegal, and the first to emerge outside of the Big Four—Nigeria, South Africa, Egypt and Kenya. Three of the Big Four have the English language as one of the languages used in official documents in business, generally. So when Wave raised a $200 million war chest, it was guaranteed to get attention.

If any African company raises $200 million, it’s huge news. But investors, including the IFC, putting $200 million into a company in Senegal has arguably done, for francophone Africa, something akin to what Stripe’s acquisition of Paystack in 2020 did for Nigeria. It put a spotlight on the mostly unheard progress of technology in the region. People sat up and took notice.

Bonus

You can also browse the full archive of 2023 Next Waves. Do let us know which Next Wave edition was your favourite?

Happy holidays!

Abraham Augustine, for team Next Wave





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Thanks for reading today’s Next Wave. Please share. Or subscribe if someone shared it to you here for free to get fresh perspectives on the progress of digital innovation in Africa every Sunday.

As always feel free to email a reply or response to this essay. I enjoy reading those emails a lot.

TC Daily newsletter is out daily (Mon – Fri) brief of all the technology and business stories you need to know. Get it in your inbox each weekday at 7 AM (WAT).

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Wasoko and MaxAB say merger will create a clear e-commerce leader with tens of millions of runway https://techcabal.com/2023/12/23/wasoko-and-maxab-say-merger-will-create-a-clear-e-commerce-leader-with-tens-of-millions-of-runway/ https://techcabal.com/2023/12/23/wasoko-and-maxab-say-merger-will-create-a-clear-e-commerce-leader-with-tens-of-millions-of-runway/#respond Sat, 23 Dec 2023 15:40:20 +0000 https://techcabal.com/?p=125764 A planned merger between MaxAB and Wasoko, the Tiger Global-backed Kenyan e-commerce startup, will make the new entity a clear leader in Africa, leaders of both firms told TechCabal. According to Daniel Yu, CEO of Wasoko and Belal El-Megharbel of MaxAB, the deal which is still in preliminary stages is expected to be finalised in the first quarter of next year.

The merger is already being touted as the largest private tech deal in Africa. Wasoko was last valued at $625 million after it raised $125 million last year. The firm says it has received $113 million out of that investment. El-Megharbel of MaxAB declined to disclose the valuation at which his firm raised $40 million in October 2022. Both executives declined to comment on their valuation expectations for the new company.

“This is not a new discussion; this is really about a friendship and partnership that has been ongoing for years, and for us, it’s about taking things to the next level,” Yu said, adding that the combined company will have more “runway with tens of millions of dollars on the balance sheet.”

The deal will be structured as an equity consideration, which means that existing shareholders simply get a share of the new company upon completion of the merger. It gives wiggle room for investors who backed both companies and potentially allows VC firms to preserve most of the valuation at which they purchased their stake in either of the firms. According to Daniel Yu of Wasoko, independent investors and board members on both sides are part of the talks. Wasoko and MaxAB have raised almost $245 million from venture capital investors.

“This is a super tough business to crack. It requires a specific type of talent and well-capitalised companies to be able to crack it,” MaxAB’s El-Megharbel told TechCabal. “Before 2001, over 10 companies were trying to do what Amazon was doing. After a crisis hits there usually emerges a clear winner,” he added. Bringing both firms together would help them maximise their chances to come out tops.

Between 2019 and 2022, venture capital investors poured money into entrepreneurs building tech companies that focused on bringing Africa’s informal wholesale market for consumer goods online. Dubbed ‘B2B e-commerce’ as opposed to the direct-to-consumer e-commerce model of Jumia and Souq.com (acquired by Amazon), B2B e-commerce was described as more suited for the African experience because its primary customers were street shops and small retailers in African cities and towns.
More recently, B2B e-commerce has struggled, and to startups in the space, including Wasoko have laid off hundreds of staff and paused expansion plans.

In social media chatter on X (formerly Twitter) and private conversations on WhatsApp and Telegram seen by TechCabal, investors and founders speculated that one or both firms were struggling, hence the merger.

El-Megharbel and Yu dismissed those concerns. “The market is used to these deals happening in these specific incidences, so this is they just haven’t seen another way of doing this,” El-Megharbel said, “We and Wasoko have approached this at a point when we did not have to do it because once you have to do it, the companies are struggling at that time. Daniel and I are mature and humble enough to figure out that if we wait longer than this, it would probably be uglier for both companies or at least for one of them. The sooner, the merrier for this deal to happen.”

“Shareholders on all sides are extremely excited about what is happening,” Wasoko’s Yu said. “This is a 1 plus 1 equals 3. This transaction will establish us as the clear B2B e-commerce leader in Africa.”

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